Current economy is so intertwined on a global scale, that local conflicts have direct impact on global peace and economy. An unstable state is not just a local issue anymore.
Some personal observations based on Fragile State Index by the Global Fund For Peace (FFP)
– All African countries are in a category of risk and the 4 highest risk categories are dominated by African countries.
– Exept for Brazil, the BRIIC countries, the 5 largest emerging economies in the world (Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, India and China) are a high risk state in this index.
– All countries from stable to very sustainable are dominated by European countries. Of the 25 Best perfoming countries only 8 are non-European. Of the best 40 only 13.
– The states with the highest reserves in oil, gold and other natural resources with high economic value are in a danger zone on this list. With exception of the United Arab Emirates (US and Canada) none of these countries is labelled as stable or beyond.
About the Fragile (Failed) State Index:
“… The Fragile States Index (FSI), produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure…
… Millions of documents are analyzed every year. By applying highly specialized search parameters, scores are apportioned for every country…
… By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, the FSI — and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built — makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large…”
The Failed States Index is an annual ranking of 177 countries across 12 indicators.
The 12 key indicators are divided in 4 categories and include over 100 sub indicators.
– Demographic Pressures (DP)
– Group Grievance (GG)
– refugees and IDP’s (REF)
– Human Flight and Brain Drain (HF)
– Unequal Economic Development (UED)
– Poverty and Economic Decline (POV)
Political and Military indicators:
– State Legitimacy (SL)
– Human Rights and Rule of Law (HR)
– Factionalized Elites (FE)
– Public Services (PS)
– Security Apparatus (SEC)
– External Intervention (EXT)
About the rankings:
First of all, the list seems to be published before recent outbreaks of crises with Ebola, IS and Ukraïne and – most likely – not included in this ranking.
The higher the ranking of a state, the more fragile that state is and the more likely to fail. The index distincts 11 categories from ‘Very High Alert’ to ‘Sustainable’.
Very High Alert (1-5) is given to 5 countries in Africa.
High Alert (6-16) is given to 11 countries; 5 from Africa and 5 countries where IS, and similar organizations are active. (Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Jemen).
Alert (17-34) is given to 17 countries, including 10 countries From sub Sahara Africa. North Korea, Egypt and Nepal are also in this category.
Very high warning (35-66) is given to 32 countries of which 15 Are in Africa. Cambodia, Laos and Bhutan are in this category, as is Colombia.
High warning (67-109) is given to 43 countries. Including Ghana (108 on the list), 7 African states are in this category. Amongst others, Israel, Turukey, Marocco, Indonesia and Surinam are in this category. With China, India and Russia, 3 of the 5 lagest world economies are in this category.
Warning (110-126) is given to 17 countries. Amongst them are 3 African countries, including South Africa. Brazil also is categorized here.
Less stable (127-138) is given to 12 countries, including Kuwait and Greece.
Stable (139-153) is given to 15 countries, most are East- and South-european.
Very stable (154-165) is given to 12 countries. The United States, Germany, United Kingdom, France and Japan are the large economies in this category.
Sustainable (166-177) is given to 12 countries. Except for Canada, Australia and New Zealand all these countries are European. The Netherlands is positioned here at 177
Very Sustainable is only given to 1 country, Finland.